Rabbi Mark Asher Goodman
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Rapids Backpass: 3-21-15 vs. NYCFC

3/24/2015

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What went right, what went wrong, and what we learned in the Rapids last match. Tactical analysis, stats and charts galore, every Tuesday this season.

So it's my turn on Tuesdays here at Burgundy Wave, and for now till the end of the season, I'll take this space to do some amateur (really, really amateur) tactical breakdown of the last game, which I have dubbed ‘Rapids Backpass': a few thoughts and things I noticed from the last match. Stats and charts. Register your displeasure below. Here what's I saw this week in Commerce City as the boys in burgundy took on Manchester City's American step-child.
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1) Axel Sjoberg is evolving



It's become self aware! Sjoberg is becoming a multi-dimensional player. And that is a pretty scary thought, considering that Sjoberg already leads MLS in clearances with 34- he was already proving to be spectacular in that one-dimension. That clearance stat becomes more amazing when you note that the Colorado Rapids have played two games, while most other defenders have had three. So Axel can clear it- that much was known in pre-season. Having Shane O'Neill behind him to take on defenders frees Axel up to head and boot anything coming into the defensive half. And he gets to pretty much everything. That's a great weapon for the Rapids, knowing that opposing teams can't win in the air in our half. Here are all his clearances. Axel had 11. The Rapids had 18, total.

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But, in addition to his defense, Sjoberg's passing was much better this game. He tried the route 1 long bomb a few times, to little avail, but was also getting the ball to Cronin, Pittinari, and especially out to Harrington much better this game than against Philadelphia. It's still early, but Sjoberg has already put the league on notice that he's a player to watch for rookie of the year.
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2) Dom Badji's holdup play had moments, but we need more, and soon

I'm essentially the lone voice in Burgundy land that thinks Badji can be the guy. His first two big plays came in the 12th minute, when he launched a perfect cross to Gabriel Torres, who put one on frame but into the hands of Joe Saunders. His next big play was at the 17th minute.



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You see here he receives the pass, draws two defenders, and spins away to make the pass. Great work, ideal holdup play.
Then he passes... backward... to Dillon Powers... as the rest of the team is jogging into spots around... and the moment is over... the offensive chance evaporates.
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This was a great moment, with the defense all drawn to him, for Badji's teammates to make the run for Powers or Pittinari to give service. Didn't happen. Hopefully the chemistry will click soon.
Badji was essentially kept in check the rest of the game, and made little noise until his removal in the 60th minute for Carlos Alvarez as Torres took up the point. Badji, to me, shows promise, but two flashes in 60 minutes isn't going to get the job done. He needs to do more, and his teammates need to work off him more as well.


3) Clogging the middle with Cronin and Pittinari worked to devastating effect

According to David Villa's heat map, the strong central defense of the Rapids down the spine forced Villa out wide to create on his own.

Harrington hung with him 1v1, and picked up help from Shane O'Neill when Villa got into threatening positions, effectively neutralizing him. Meanwhile, although Mix Diskerud's passing percentage of 88% looks impressive, he only completed one into the final third, and had zero chances created. Most of his passes were short attempts to circulate the ball, as the NYCFC offense sputtered all day. This is a guy who threaded perfect attacking balls all day the week before against the MLS Cup runners-up. That's something to get excited about, Rapids fans.


4) Corner tactic -> is that really the only way?


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The Rapids had 8 corners and 22 open play crosses, both huge increases for the team over some of the sleepy offense we've seen on this 16 game winless streak. The main tactic, noted by Balboa and Fleming, was putting Sjoberg (above, #44) beyond the back post and playing it in for him. The advantage is that he can always get it over his shorter defender. The downside is that, often on this play, he starts so wide, its hard to see him get into an ideal position to head it in. Sjoberg should have some headed goals this year, but the Rapids might want to mix up the options in order to make one of these work.

5) This 4-2-3-1 with Torres, Powers and Pittinari can become dynamic on the attack
What has made the 4-2-3-1 so popular - I saw a stat recently that said it was the most lined-up formation across all European leagues - is that it blends strong central defense with the ability to create in lots of ways on the attack. The Rapids showed signs of that this week. On offense, Colorado's attack morphs to a 4-1-4-1. Cronin hangs back for protection with Pittinari joining on the attack, seeking a streaking Powers or Torres on their way to goal. The best chance in the game came on a play just like that, in the second half.


It was impressive how forward in the attack Pittinari's young Argentine legs could carry him. As you can see by his passing map, he not only often gets to make his passes well into the attacking half, but also tends to be passing into the middle, towards the magic 'zone 14', just outside the box and right in front of goal.



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I know it's just one game. I know the Rapids didn't get the win. And I know we're all sick of Pablo Mastroeni giving a post-game interview where he talks about how great the teams is and it sounds all sunshine and rainbows until you actually look at where we sit in the table. But in all that I saw in watching this game, there really are a lot of encouraging signs as we go into Houston, a team that I don't have a lot of high regard for. So lets go get that first win, huh?
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It's Time for Deshorn Brown To Go

3/17/2015

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He's young and fast and has 20 goals over the past two seasons. But the Rapids can do better at striker than Deshorn Brown.

What I am about to write pains me, because I, for a long time, was a fan of Colorado Rapids striker Deshorn Brown. I love his speed. I think he's young, and still has a lot of potential. And when thinking about what uniform to get in the offseason, Brown was very nearly to be my pick. Instead, I ended up getting a cheaper replica kit off EBay for $20 with no number on the back. We're broke. Diapers are expensive. But I digress.
What I want to say is: Deshorn Brown has to go. He has not been successful as a Rapid. Let me explain.
Any Rapids fan that watched last season knows that Deshorn is prone to big misses in front of goal. This is a known thing. Observe. (HT Mr. Whitesides)


As a former Deshorn defender, I tried to ignore the fact of Deshorn's poor shooting on the basis of two suppositions. Supposition 1: Deshorn is young and likely to get better at shooting. Supposition 2: He gets a lot of chances because of his amazing speed, so we only see the negative side- that he misses a lot- without balancing it against the fact that he gets chances that other players don't get.
I'm not sure either of those is entirely wrong. However, with the leaked news that Tippalegaen side Vålerenga is interested in Deshorn, it was worth extra scrutiny to consider whether he is a valuable asset worth holding onto, or whether he is expendable.
And my conclusion is: expendable. Fire him into the sun. If his transfer fee is $50 and the Rapids to pay for Deshorn's airfare and first and last months deposit on an apartment in Oslo, then go ahead and make that deal, Paul Bravo. Lemmee ‘splain.
The nouveau-statistic ‘Expected Goals' takes each and every shot and analyzes the probability of a goal in each case. Americansoccerstatistics.com ranked every player in MLS last season, and out of 532 players, Deshorn Brown was dead last in xGoals.


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That little orange box is the differential between what he should have scored, and what he did score. Not only is he the worst in MLS, he's the worst by almost a whole goal over the next worst shooter.
And it gets worse. Deshorn Brown also clearly attended the Kobe Bryant School of Shooting. Kobe famously said last season ‘I would go 0-for-30 before I would go 0-for-9.' Message: the only crime of a bad shooter is that he didn't shoot enough. Deshorn Brown was second in MLS in shots last year. He was not, however, second in goals. In fact, his scoring percent of 8.3%, while not last in the league, is still pretty low. Among strikers with more than 30 shots, only Dom Oduro and Teal Bunbury, and Edson Buddle (of course) were lower. All of those guys are (or in Buddle's case, were) fleet-footed too. Neither took anywhere near 121 shots. I mean, he literally shoots like he thinks he's Robbie Keane or Clint Dempsey. He is not.
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I have a feeling that it was not Deshorn's poor form that kept him from getting steady reps during pre-season: it was the arrival of stat-head Padraig Smith. I imagine Smith did the math and told the front office and Coach Mastroeni: the one single best thing you can do for this team is sit Deshorn Brown. The message seems received loud and clear, since Brown didn't get the start in the season opener.
Among Rapids fans, there's a bit of disagreement about the alternatives. Dom Badji is a Cinderella story, came out of nowhere; so I'm partial to the 4th round pick. Gabriel Torres is a good choice, and statistically he was right around average in the statistic of expected goals, but some think he's best as a number 10. He wasn't impressive in that role against Philadelphia, though, so maybe he's your striker. Finally, Kevin Doyle from Wolverhampton in the English Championship is rumored to be sought by the Rapids. I know he has the tools and the makeup, but as you can see from below, he hasn't scored in over a year. He's only taken one shot this season. He has a whole truck-load of rust to shake off, and I'm not sure that that's DP cash-worthy.
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Maybe Deshorn needs more time to develop. Maybe he's incredibly unlucky.
Nonetheless, it seems clear that, as sad as it is for me to say, getting rid of Deshorn Brown would be addition by subtraction. If he's going to engineer a turn-around, I will be the loudest to cheer for him. But if he needs to improve his game, let him do in the Tippaligaen, and let Vålerenga take the risk. Sometimes a change of scenery can revive a player's career. And I wish all the best to Deshorn. But for those of us in Commerce City, it's time to move on to something better.
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    Mark Asher Goodman has written soccer articles for the Denver Post, The Athletic, American Soccer Analysis, Around MLS, and Burgundy Wave.

    ​Archived articles from BW and AMLS are posted here, along with new content from 2019.


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