At the end of the game Saturday, I returned from Anthony Hudson’s press conference, and two photographers stopped me to ask what the hell happened with that VAR call in the 76th minute. To refresh your memory, here’s the recap:
‘NYRB hammered home a great goal on the run as Alex Muyl crossed a perfect low pass from the right side to the foot of Derrick Etienne. However, the goal was waived off by the Assistant Referee for offsides. Immediately, Head Referee Ismail Elfath put his hand to his ear and delayed the restart as VAR official Baldomero Toledo reviewed the play. The PRO referee crew, after a few minutes, signals that the goal stands, giving NY a 2-0 lead.’
I told them that I didn’t know, and that Matt Pollard and Abbie Mood and Marco Cummings and Brian Jennings and Anthony Hudson did not know either.
Here’s Hudson’s exact words:
“I can’t understand why the first offside decision was changed, when it’s been given and was clearly offside, and Tommy Smith at the end*? I can’t see how that’s not given. The position of where the defender is, you know, it’s a goal scoring opportunity. I think it’s poor. It’s poor.”
There are two things confusing about this goal. The first thing is the call itself. It looked offside, and was called offside. So the important question to ask here is: was it offside?
Here’s two pics:

In the final ten minutes there was a flurry of action and the Rapids created four good chances and that McBean goal, but once again, the team needs more than a good stretch of 15 minutes to get it done, and once again, they need more contributions from more players. My complaining about the officiating does not obviate the fact that hoping for 1-1 draws is not really where we want to be, especially with a lineup that is the 10th most expensive in MLS this year.
MLS Salary ChatterI used to do a ‘bargains and sunk costs’ piece right after the MLS salary data release, but Marco Cummings basically said everything I’d say about the booms and busts. I’ll just make some other observations. Below, if you haven’t already seen it, is the Rapids salary data for 2018.
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Everybody making north of $500,000 has an expectation of being fit, healthy, and starting, as well as performing at or above the level of an average counterpart in MLS. The ‘worst values’ on Marco’s list - Yannick Boli, Stefan Aigner, and Shkelzen Gashi - carry expectations that come with that big money that none of them have met. The next tier of players - Joe Mason, Tommy Smith, and Danny Wilson - are also expensive, but the fact that they don’t top the list for earnings, and that two of them are central defenders - is a curiosity. It goes back to something I’ve discussed before: that the moneyball Rapids under Padraig Smith want to spend money on things that other teams aren’t spending money on, like defenders. If the market is hot on strikers and South American attacking mids, then buy something the market doesn’t overinflate.

A possible corollary to this moneyball axiom is based on Joe Mason’s big salary. Mason, making $682,500, along with Yannick Boli at $907,500, Dominique Badji at $168,750, Jack McBean at $68,906, and Niki Jackson at the minimum salary of $54,500 form a striker squad that is relatively affordable. Consider that 19 MLS forwards make north of $1 million dollars. Consider also that a number of MLS teams have several million-dollar attackers, like Atlanta United, LAFC, LA Galaxy, NYCFC and Philadelphia Union. The Rapids, meanwhile, have paid a medium price for three strikers, hoping two will end up successful. It’s an interesting play. So far it’s not quite working to produce the kind of offensive explosion the team needs, but ask Philadelphia Union fans if paying Borek Dokal and David Accam over a million dollars each to score a grand total of one goal has been worth it. Odds are, they’ll say no.

Aignergate UpdateStefan Aigner did not make the 18 man roster for the fifth match in a row this past week. As Matt Pollard has reported, Hudson and the technical staff maintain that Aigner is on a specific training program to get him where the coach wants him to be.

Meanwhile, a reliable source with knowledge of the MLS transfer market informed me this past week that the Rapids shopped Aigner around the league before the transfer window closed on May 1. So it seems to me that the situation in Commerce City is that Aigner and Hudson are going along to get along for the near term, but the team is almost certainly trying to offload Aigner to another team, if and when the conditions are right.

That also assumes that Hudson is still with the Rapids at the next transfer window.

Hudson to Sunderland?

Reports out of England have Rapids coach Anthony Hudson on a short list of five coaches being considered for the job. Rapids beat reporter Marco Cummings asked Hudson about it, and got a firm but non-committal response: “My life right now is the Colorado Rapids.” I don’t want to parse the words ‘right now’ too carefully, because it could mean nothing that he added a present tense conjugation to this rumor. But also, Hudson didn’t come out and say ‘I don’t want the Sunderland job.’ 

Some pundits think that Hudson may be leaping off of a sinking ship. Maybe. I think leaving the stable and promising Colorado Rapids for a team that was relegated from the Premier League at the end of 2017 and relegated again to end 2018 down to League One. Sure, he could be a savior. But Hudson’s got a job with security into 2019 and probably 2020 here in Colorado. With Sunderland, he might not even last as long as the 10 months that David Moyes did. Or even the 85 days that Bob Bradley lasted at Swansea. How many Scaramuccis is that? 

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* Smith went down in the box with contact from Kemar Lawrence during stoppage time.

** I know! I’m shocked too. But the net was so wide open that your grandmother would have put that in with her walker if given the chance. McBean’s goal doesn’t change my central contention that he’s not really what we need as a second striker.
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*** We play NYCFC in New York this weekend. Top to bottom, this is the best team in MLS right now - better than even Atlanta United in my humble opinion. Buckle up for a fifth loss in a row kids.

By Rapids Rabbi

A day after Colorado’s defeat to Sporting Kansas City, reports were circulating that Barcelona’s midfield maestro Andres Iniesta was no longer expected to sign in China. Some MLS types began speculating about Iniesta coming to America instead, and of course I made a twitter joke about him coming to the Rapids. Because that’s what I do. I try to stay on-brand.

Simultaneously, several people quipped that Iniesta might not get selected for the Rapids 18, or that he wouldn’t ‘fit our system.’ That’s a harsh burn on our coach, Anthony Hudson. But it also shows how quickly the fans have become frustrated with the new Rapids manager.

There was great excitement when Hudson arrived and instituted a new formation and system, an attacking 3-5-2. Excitement turned to trepidation when the offseason also brought wholesale changes to the roster which were kind of questionable. While most of MLS was headed to Central and South America to find talent like Alberth Elis, Miguel Almiron, Ezekiel Barco, Nicolas Lodeiro, Roman Torres, and Francisco Calvo, Colorado chose to go a different route. Rapids GM Padraig Smithpicked up players from the New Zealand National team (Kip Colvey, Deklan Wynne, Tommy Smith), the English second division (Jack Price, Tommy Smith [again], Joe Mason) and the Scottish Premiership (Danny Wilson and now Sam Nicholson). Then he added to that a Star Wars cantina of other interesting player backgrounds that included a USL lifer, a middle-aged Scandinavian of little renown, a backup striker released from the worst team in MLS in 2018, and a French striker who has torn up the Chinese and Russian second divisions. All that was fine. Odd, but if it works, fine.

Hudson then proceeded to unwrap all his shiny new toys and put them on the field, and he took all the Rapids clunky old toys and put them in the closet. Axel Sjoberg and Jared Watts and Dillon Serna and Stefan Aigner and Eric Miller were on the bench or the reserves, while burgundy vets Tim Howard, Marlon Hairston, Dominique Badji and Kortne Ford were retained as starters. And considering the Rapids horrid 2017 season, these were not bad choices. Change in the face of failure is wise and prudent. Bringing on new players is a necessary part of innovating.

Except now we’re 8 games through the MLS season, or almost a quarter of the way, and the team is average 1.0 ppg, which is almost identical to how we did in 2017. And some of those players that Hudson has handed starting jobs have been underwhelming. Danny Wilson, Tommy Smith and Deklan Wynne have been ok-not-great on the backline. They’ve conceded 11 goals in 8 games, which is actually pretty decent; above average in MLS. However, their expected goals against (xGA) stands at 14.1, meaning the Rapids have been the lucky beneficiaries of some really poor finishing by opponents. American Soccer Analysis has them at 20th out of 23 MLS teams for expected goal differential, xGD, a true measure of how good a team is doing at creating and defending chances.

That’s mathematical. Anecdotally, we’ve already seen moments of Deklan Wynne being outplayed at center back. The Rapids played Axel Sjoberg in 2 matches this year, and he looked good in both, but as soon as other options were healthy, Sjoberg went back to the bench. Coach Hudson did not elect to give Eric Miller or Jared Watts chances at center back at all, and instead, they were sold off, and now until Kortne Ford returns from injury, the Kiwi-Scottish-Championship combination is probably what we’ve got. Not how I’d line up, but ok, not terrible.

All this is prelude and backstory to this week’s match at Sporting Kansas City. The Starting XI Colorado put on the field included four serious head scratchers:

1) Kip Colvey started over Dillon Serna, who looked like the best player on the field for while last week. 

2) Jack McBean started over Joe Mason and Yannick Boli at striker. 

3) Sam Nicholson, who had been acquired only days early from Minnesota, started in midfield.

4) Stefan Aigner was not included in the 18 man roster for the fourth straight game despite Colorado missing midfielders Nana Boateng, Shkelzen Gashi and Johan Blomberg to injury. 

As the game went along, almost all of these moves looked like poor decisions. 

Colvey was mostly ineffectual all game (he had one key pass), and then dribbled out of bounds and lost control of a simple pass before getting subbed off in the 79th minute. SKC’s TV commentators compared him to a pub league player for those gaffes. 

To this point in the season, McBean has the worst expected passing  for any MLS player with more than 200 minutes. You could excuse that (Dom Dwyer is also on the bottom of this list) if McBean was a good shooter with a lot of goals. He isn't. McBean has 7 shots, zero goals for 2018. Against SKC, he was 6 for 11 in passes with a key pass and a shot, and was subbed off at the half. I can think of no greater indication of a player playing poorly than being subbed off at the half in a like-for-like move. Why he was chosen to start over high priced transfer Yannick Boli or talented loanee Joe Mason is a mystery to me. More of a mystery than the mystery of love, or quantum mechanics, or where that second sock in the dryer went.

Sam Nicholson was fine, connecting for 2 key passes. In the second half Colorado struggled to connect in the attack and he was subbed off for Yannick Boli. Boli didn’t do much of note.

Colorado’s passing in the attacking half was below 70% as the team was strung out across the field and lacked the ability to connect passes, dribble at defenders, or build an attack. Stefan Aigner might not be Iniesta, but he’s certainly a better pass connector than Jack McBean or Kip Colvey. Add to this the fact that the Rapids chose to recall Sam Hamilton from loan at Colorado Springs rather than put Aigner on the bench, and you’ve got a lot of questions about this lineup.

All this is a long way of saying that the Rapids did not have their best eleven on the field, and they were completely outclassed from whistle to whistle by an SKC team that they drew at home just six weeks ago. Enzo Martinez and Dominique Badji and Jack Price all looked good , but were surrounded with players that couldn’t get into dangerous spaces, make clever passes, or create much. On the counter, the Rapids were completely exposed, and as a result were outshot 23 to 10. It could have been much worse: the expected goals for KC was 2.85, while for the Rapids it was only 0.61. And even THAT number is misleading: Badji's breakaway miss in the 80th minute had an xG of .25 all by itself.*  Without that big chance from a Matt Beasler giveaway and two flubbed tackles, the Rapids chances in total had an xG of a paltry 0.36, which I probably don't need to tell you is completely terrible.

I’m burying the lede here, because I’m finally telling you the thing that you already know, but thirteen paragraphs into this column:

Anthony Hudson deserves to be called out for starting players that have yet to prove to anybody that they deserve to start, while sitting players with demonstrable success in Major League Soccer. Stefan Aigner was a good MLS player at the back end of 2017. Axel Sjoberg was a runner-up for defender of the year in 2016. Dillon Serna had 3 goals, 4 assists his rookie year and played with the USMNT U-23 team. And yet coach Hudson chose to start Kip Colvey and Deklan Wynne and (expletive deleted expletive deleted expletive deleted) Jack McBean in this one.

I like Coach Hudson’s new tactical approach. I like the way he prepares teams each week. I’ve seen the team show promise with their buildup play. I can’t understand Coach Hudson’s squad selections. He isn’t putting his best eleven on the field, and I don’t know why. Maybe he rewards players who look great at training. Maybe he has advanced metrics from the front office that demonstrate something about the players that have been selected.** Maybe he’s still got beef with Stefan Aigner. 

Whatever it is, the composition of the team is off. The players on the field have a plan. A lot of them have the talent to play at this level. Some of them, however, do not. Minnesota learned that last year with Vadim Demidov and Bashkim Kadrii, just like other teams trying out new players have learned. It’s time to stop putting a 38 horsepower engine into your Camaro and expecting to win Daytona just because ‘you’ve got a plan’. Put in the big engine, coach. Anthony Hudson needs to put their best XI on the field before the season starts to get away from the Rapids for good.

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* Thanks to MLSsoccer.com's Ben Baer for that tidbit.
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** I was told anecdotally by a source that according to tests Kip Colvey is one of the fastest players in MLS. You know who else is fast? Usain Bolt. Manchester United hasn’t signed him for some reason, though.