Rabbi Mark Asher Goodman
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2018 Colorado Rapids Season Preview: Part II, the Offense

3/7/2018

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By Rapids Rabbi
This is Part II. For Part I, where we previewed the goalkeepers, center backs, and full backs, click here.

The Midfield
Micheal Azira, Jack Price, Johan Blomberg, Nana Boateng, Shkëlzen Gashi, Enzo Martinez, Stefan Aigner, Sam Hamilton, Ricardo Perez

The center of the Rapids midfield in 2017 underwent a lot of change throughout the year. To start the season, the Rapids lined up in a 4-2-3-1 with Micheal Azira and Sam Cronin as the defensive midfielders and Dillon Powers as the number 10. By midseason, the team was playing a 4-4-2 with Mohammed Saeid and Nana Boateng in the middle. And in August the lineup consisted of Micheal Azira, Nana Boateng, and Luis Gil in a 4-3-3. That's a lot of looks for one team and, since the team didn't make the playoffs and finished 10th, I think it safe to say that it never worked.

As noted in part I, the Rapids offense scored the fewest goals in 2017 of any MLS team, and was 14th of 22 teams in defense. Central midfield was a big, big part of both of those problems. The advanced statistic expected goals measures how many goals an average team finishing average chances would score. The Rapids had 35.38 xG as a team, making them dead last in MLS in team xG by 3 full goals. Fellow cellar dwellers DC United had a better xG at 41.78, but had only 27 actual goals. DC's finishing was just awful, but even their fairly dry and bland offense produced more legitimate goal-scoring chances than the Rapids offense did.

Colorado created fewer chances than any other team in the league, and chance creation is generally the job of the midfielders, so I think one could comfortably say that the Rapids 2017 midfield wasn't good enough. The 2017 midfield also was ineffective at protecting the backline: without Sam Cronin, Micheal Azira just wasn't the same at locking down the defense.

To read more from Rapids Rabbi about Micheal Azira, click here.

Nana Boateng never really clicked in either offense or defense. Dillon Powers was ok but not great, but then he was traded. Mohammed Saeid was mostly a passing threat, but he wasn’t a scorer and his defensive was average-not-great. I’m not even going to mention Luis Gil. There was nothing special about the Rapids midfield. An optimist would say it was, at best, a little below average. A pessimist would insert tirefire.gif right here.

Of all the parts of the team that needed a fix, it was the midfield that was most in need of a dramatic rebuild to begin the 2018 campaign. So the Rapids brought in three new midfielders, in hopes of getting better results this year than the putrid 9-6-19 (WTL) record from the previous year. 
For starters, the defensive midfield job has been handed over to Wolverhampton Wanderers veteran Jack Price. Price, from the chances we’ve had to see him in pre-season and CCL, combines aggressive tackling, a go-go motor than doesn’t quit, and smooth ground passing. He seems like a good fit for the new offense.

Another new player in burgundy this year is Enzo Martinez. Drafted by RSL in 2012, Martinez was loaned out to the NASL’s Carolina Railhawks and released by Salt Lake at season’s end. He plied his trade in NASL and USL before really coming into his own in 2016 and 2017. Enzo caught the attention of the Rapids front office by finishing in the top three of USL MVP voting in both years.  He was invited to Rapids training at the start of February, and was signed to an MLS contract the day before the Rapids faced Toronto FC in the first leg of the Scotiabank Concacaf Champions League. Martinez started the match and at times looked like the Rapids best player. He’s ferocious in the tackle but likes to get forward in attack, too, and might best be described as a creative box-to-box mid. Whether he slots in as the team’s regular starting midfielder every game or is thought of as part of a rotating cast, he brings a lot to this team that they didn’t have before.

To read more by Rapids Rabbi about Enzo Martinez, click here.

The last addition is 30 year-old Johan Blomberg, who joined the team way back in November of 2017 from AIK in Sweden, where he started 28 games and scored 3 goals in their 2017. He got the nod in the Rapids second leg match against Toronto in CCL. It’s hard to forecast what his role with be, but he was acquired with TAM and occupies an international slot, so Rapids GM Padraig Smith’s magic wizarding slide rule of fate believes he’s legit. I myself will reserve judgement till I see him log a few more minutes on the pitch.

Colorado brings back Nana Boateng, a TAM-level midfielder who suffered a fractured vertebra early in 2017 and, after healing for a few months, didn't truly get back in the groove. He’s a big, physical player with a nice passing touch, and hopefully a full year of health will allow him to really breakout in MLS this year. Another player looking for a rebound year is Shkëlzen Gashi. Gashi’s 2016-2017 winter instagram was filled with pics of him yachting in Dubai. He came into training camp out of shape, got hurt, recovered, got hurt again, and played poorly. His offseason 2017-2018 instagram pics were all #HittingTheGym and so forth, but he’s been out with a calf injury to start the year. We’ll see if the Albanian international and Rapids DP got the memo about fitness, or whether it was only his public relations and marketing team that understood what Padraig Smith was saying. 

Gashi, as well as Stefan Aigner, don’t exactly fit as central midfielders in a 5-3-2 formation. Those middle three need to cover a lot of ground, link up play, and defend, and both Aigner and Gashi prefer to get forward and take shot. They’re both probably better as underneath strikers, but they are going to have to adapt to the new formation, just as new head coach Anthony Hudson needs to adapt to his attackers best abilities. Aigner, in just 5 starts, had 2 goals and an assist (a great assist, mind you). As soon as they figure out where he fits in this formation and offense, he should produce for Colorado. He was more of a wide midfielder for his German team, 1860 Munich, and here in Colorado he’ll likely be playing more centrally.

Micheal Azira will likely be used this year as likely a late-game lock-it-down-on-defense sub for the Rapids. Ricky Perez and Sam Hamilton are essentially depth for the team, although I think Perez, the only pure number 10 on this team, has some potential to push his way into a regular sub role if Hudson really wants to let the dogs off the leash and attack. And both may spend time out on loan again if they gather too much dust with the reserve squad.

Better? Worse? Same?

Without a doubt: better. But the team didn’t get the number 10 creator that every fan was chomping at the bit for. The team hasn’t scored 40 or more goals since 2014, and I’m not sure they’ve positioned themselves to change that trend in 2018.

The Strikers

Dominique Badji, Joe Mason, Jack McBean, Caleb Calvert, Niki Jackson

I’ve written thousands upon thousands of words about the Rapids in the offseason- dissecting this and pontificating upon that. It all doesn’t really amount to a hill of beans. The real deal is this: the Rapids will go as Dom Badji goes. If he can progress a bit more, finish chances at a good clip, and put the team on his shoulders, the team will be good enough to slip into the playoffs. If he topped out at 9 goals in 2017 and pulls a Gyasi Zardes-level regression this year, this team will be DC-United-in-2013 levels of bad. Badji needs link up partners and service and the right tactics to spring him into space, and on top of all that, he needs to be a little better at finishing. He’s already pretty good. If he can make the small leap from good to great - if he can make the leap from 9 goals in a season to 12 or 14 goals - it might be enough to carry this team into the playoffs.

His striker sidekick in this merry escapade is a big part of that equation. As mentioned, it could be Shkëlzen Gashi or Stefan Aigner, floating wide or playing underneath. But more than likely in the near term it is the Rapids newest addition to the roster, Joe Mason, a TAM signing for the Rapidson loan from Wolverhampton Wanderers. I don’t know what to make of Mason - after scoring 9 goals in the 2015-16 season for Cardiff and Wolverhampton, he spent 2016-17 coming off the bench, scoring 3 goals, and in 2017-18 Wolves sent him out on loan to Burton where he’s played a scant 287 minutes. The last Rapids player we acquired who was the property of Wolves and was found rusting on their bench was Kevin Doyle, and he underperformed expectation in his 3 years in Colorado. My level of expectation for Mason is going to be what Doyle ultimately turned out to be in Commerce City: serviceable, but not great.

I’ll be more than happy to eat my words if I’m wrong.

Jack McBean, in limited use or as a break-glass-in-emergency striker is probably ok. He’s a first-touch strike kind of poacher; his speed and technical skills are only so-so. Since being signed as a homegrown by the LA Galaxy in 2011, McBean has played 7 professional seasons, but has only 4 goals and 1466 minutes in that time. If Colorado need to turn to him regularly for help, that’s not likely to work out. Caleb Calvert seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 22 years old. I expect he’ll spend the full year on loan with the Charlotte Independence. Niki Jackson is fast and physical, but as a fourth round SuperDraft pick, it’s unlikely he’s ready for the fast-paced decision making that happens in MLS. He did come on in CCL leg two against Toronto, so maybe the FO thinks he's ready to get senior team minutes this year. All three of these players might be useful next year, but right now, none of them will be the solution to the Rapids scoring woes by any stretch of the imagination.

Better? Worse? Same?

Same or worse. Which, I mean, wow. We lost Kevin Doyle, a fairly mediocre striker, and yet (in my humble opinion) we still couldn't find an upgrade for him and his modest production of 16 goals in 71 games. The team was linked in the offseason with Claudiu Keseru, Roy Krishna, Billy Sharp, Ola Kamara, and more, and didn’t get any of them. They drafted four strikers this year, and three: Alan Winn, Brian Iloski, and Frandtzy Pierrot; went abroad or to USL. It’s hard to tell who misses more: the Rapids in trying to get a striker, or the Rapids strikers themselves.

The Coach
Anthony Hudson takes the reigns of the Rapids from Pablo Mastroeni and interim coach Steve Cooke, and brings international experience and a very clear vision of a system and formation that he wants to play. The knock on Hudson of course, is that his international experience is with FIFA minnows New Zealand and Bahrain. New Zealand in Hudson’s tenure mostly beat low-ranked Oceania teams like Fiji and Vanuatu and lost to larger teams like Belarus, Northern Ireland and Mexico. Hudson’s best results in his three years with the All-Whites were a 1-1 draw against the US in 2016, and a 0-0 draw against Peru in 2018.

Padraig Smith and Hudson have spoken about ‘the Rapids Way’ evolving from being a dour and defensive seven-behind-the-ball system to something more active and aggressive. And so far, the Rapids 5-3-2 (or 3-5-2, depending on how you want to call it) is a bit more active in sending runners into the final third. The team is at least no longer strapped down to one lone striker on an island and two defense-first midfielders anchored to the teams defensive half, as it was under Mastroeni. Hudson is already under a bit of criticism for framing the two CCL matches the Rapids had as ‘essentially pre-season’ games, and there are different opinions on whether that was simply pragmatic as a coach or disrespectful to the fans (including me) who froze their butts off in the stands to watch the coldest match between MLS teams in history. 
All in all, I’m encouraged by Hudson. The Rapids were bad at left back in 2017, and had an excellent wingback being played mostly as a midfielder in Marlon Hairston. So they brought in an excellent left back in Edgar Castillo and also selected a coach that plays a system which might maximize Hairston’s talents. I’m slightly concerned with his moves to bring on players from his New Zealand team - Kip Colvey, Deklan Wynne, and Tommy Smith - but if they turn out to help the team, then I suppose it’s a good move. Plus I understand that every coach needs ‘his guys’. The only real concern I have is how the offseason moves may impact players already on the roster that could now be blocked. Axel Sjoberg, Micheal Azira, and Dillon Serna are all good soccer players who seem to be out-of-favor with the new head coach. Hopefully they’ve been given a chance to earn a spot back by Hudson, because in my opinion, all could be useful to the Rapids.

Better? Worse? Same?

Better. I believe a manager gets two years to get a team moving in the right direction. Hudson just needs to improve on last year’s bad season and he’s got my approval. It shouldn’t be that hard a bar to clear, but on the other hand, it’s hard to tell whether he has the right players at his disposal to significantly improve on last year’s disappointing results.

The Prediction
​
The Rapids will finish 8th in the West. If Badji has a breakout year, if everything clicks just right on defense, and if the team gets a mid-summer reinforcement in the attack, I could see them slipping into the last spot in the playoffs. If defense doesn't click and doesn't show improvement after the additions of Jack Price, Tommy Smith, and Danny Wilson, this team could sink as low as 11th. Because no matter how bad we are, I can safely predict that it looks like Minnesota United will be worse.
1 Comment

Backpass: Don't look back in anger

3/1/2018

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March 1, 2018
by Mark Asher Goodman

​Are we done with the hand-wringing? Can we move on from the canned controversy and the use of sound bytes for your weaponized soccer ire and indignation? Man.
The kerfuffle of which I speak is this:



And, to be fair, these are not illegitimate criticisms (although 'bush league'? That's a bit harsh.) The Rapids lost to Toronto FC, and that’s certainly disappointing. And Anthony Hudson, in his post game press conferences after both legs, expressed in a variety of ways that this game was ‘essentially the pre-season’ for Colorado. There are a lot of ways to take this. If you’re Grant Wahl, it’s disrespectful to be treating a serious tournament like the Scotiabank Concacaf Champions League the same way you’d treat a match against your local college team. If you’re a Rapids fan, the comments can be taken as a demonstration that the teams emphasis is winning league games. You may feel good about this, but you may also feel annoyed that the team isn't setting itself up to try to win everything, every week. And, if you’re the Colorado Rapids, Hudson’s remarks are simply a bit of ex post facto verbal jujitsu. If the team wins, the manager can comment on what a tremendous team they’ve put together. If they lose, as they did, he can say ‘well, this game wasn’t really our focus anyhow.’
But still. This was 30 pundits screaming simultaneously into a hot-take echo chamber about a game that was going to be very, very difficult to win. They tried their best. But this new 2018 Rapids club is not really there yet. I'm ok with that. I'm ok with club staff saying that. I'm sorry that Grant Wahl doesn't feel that way. (I still liked his book on Beckham though.)


Tactical Notes from Toronto Colorado’s 5-3-2 was efficient at holding down TFC in the first half. The ‘Pids had 5 shots to TFC’s 3. There was one really neat little thing that the team did first half.


In the 30th minute, Tommy Smith (#5) has emerged from a little left wingside tiki-taka and floated a ball into the box. It’s batted away, but Smith recovers and feeds Jack McBean (#32), who misses high. This is one of those looks a team can throw in there with the 5-3-2 that often creates mismatches for opposing defenses - they bring up a CB high into the attack. Defenders here are keying on Deklan Wynne (#27)and Dominique Badji (#14) because … they should. Both are expected to press high in attack. Smith, however, is not, and when he unloads the ball on Badji in that first pass, he’s off down the field with space to work in.

And it’s not a fluke - it’s a plan. The same thing happens in the 33rd minute. 

Enzo Martinez (#90), in that little orange triangle, picks off a ball. McBean (#32) makes a bad pass that bounces around and ends up back with Martinez, represented by the blue triangle for the defensive play and that yellow line when he unloads the pass. Ford reads his opportunities and comes rollicking up the sideline to get Enzo’s pass. He charges all the way to the corner of the 18 yard box and, seeing no good outlets centrally, takes a shot himself. It’s a little ballsy, I’ll say, but I like the idea. In both these plays, the Rapids overload the side and catch their opponents undermanned by flashing a center back. I’m not really upset that it didn’t work because, again, I liked seeing the team try different looks out.
This can only work in the 5-3-2 because the rest of the backline is reading the play and filling in. There's a aspect of the two games we've seen the Rapids play that had a 'total football' look to them - a lot of dynamic positioning, a lot of covering and filling. I saw Marlon Hairston coming into the attack and Jack Price filling in for him; Dominique Badji coming deep to receive while Enzo Martinez streaked into the box like a striker; and here Kort Ford and Tommy Smith coming on attack like midfielders while the full backs shade over to fill. I'm enjoying it. Patience, young padawan. It will soon bear fruit.
However.
The second half was, again, rough.


The back three were exploited on the counter several times, and Danny Wilson and Tommy Smith didn’t quite close down. Toronto outshot the Rapids 8 to 4, and only a spectacular diving reach from Zac MacMath on a headed Drew Moor ball in the 83rd, and a terrible miss from maybe 5 yards by Chris Mavinga in the 93rd, kept the Rapids from losing 2-0 yet again.
Head Coach Anthony Hudson used some subs this time, bringing on Edgar Castillo and Niki Jackson both in the 66th minute. For Jackson, it was his MLS debut, and he mostly was used to be the decoy on the backline that gave Dominique Badji some space to work underneath. With the addition of Joe Mason and his getting integrated into the team, it might be a while till we see Jackson on the field again.


Welcome Sam Vines!
In a salary cap league, you need to get a bunch of things right. Your DPs need to produce at a high level. You need to make smart moves with TAM. You need to fill out the roster with players from the SuperDraft that will contribute. And lastly, you need some Homegrowns. Developing a homegrown player can benefit your team in three ways that other players generally do not. First, according to MLS roster rules, they get to slot into your team on the reserve roster, where they are not counted against the salary cap. 

That’s an inexpensive player that doesn’t cost the team anything, and anything they contribute on the field is gravy. Second, a homegrown player that develops and plays at a very high level could act as a team’s fourth DP. Tyler Adams for NYRB, Jordan Morris for Seattle Sounders, and potentially Andrew Carleton for Atlanta United are all accomplished players that, if they were purchased abroad or had -inho at the end of their names might command a significant transfer fee, but instead, they make your team a lot better and don’t cost a dime. Third, they can be sold for a huge chunk of change, and they get to keep every penny of that money. That’s a change from previous years, when teams kept only 3/4ths of that money. That’s more than a team would retain in any other type of transfer - in other circumstances (SuperDraft signings, free transfers from abroad) the team must cede some money back to MLS. With all those benefits, a fully funded academy that produces maybe three homegrowns a decade pays for itself.
​
I’ll add to all of that the fact that academies are great for the local community at large. They provides free, high level soccer instruction to hundreds of kids that. They won't  become pros, but many will potentially get NCAA scholarships. Those hundreds of kids will someday become soccer dads or soccer moms or soccer coaches, and create more soccer players, and cycle perpetuates itself. MLS academies create a ripple effect of good things. You cannot say the same for DP signings, unless you sell luxury condos or Maseratis for a living.
The Rapids Academy turned out Kort Ford last year, and he’s became a regular starter in just his rookie year. Ford took a full college career to develop his game. Vines is putting college on hold to turn pro. Having spoken to Rapids Director of Senior Development Brian Crookham on many occasions, I’ll say this: Brian is interested in doing what is best for the player, and also, it should benefit the club. Vines has a spectacular left foot, he’s a tall kid, and Crookham described him as “deadly on free kicks.”

Read more about Sam Vines Here

The Rapids already have a whole bunch of left backs though  ; Castillo, Wynne, Colvey, and Serna all naturally play the spot. So, I’ll make a pretty obvious prediction here: two of those players will be elsewhere, either on loan to Charlotte or sold outright, by late April.

​RIP, the Backpass Commentariat

Lastly, dear readers, you’ll notice that the new site AroundMLS.com doesn’t have a comments section. Ain’t nothin’ I can do about it. It's a bummer! Believe it or not, I really like interacting with my readers. Even the ornery ones. I can only suggest that if you see something you like, you don’t like, or disagree with in my column, there are a couple good alternatives of where you can talk about it. BurgundyWave.com still is a great site to read and banter on. Last Word on Soccer (LWOsoccer.com) is also a great place, and it has a comments section. And lastly, if you see something you want to throw down about, hit me on twitter at @rapidsrabbi.
The next time you see Backpass , it’ll be after our season opener in New England on March 10. Can’t hardly wait.
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    Mark Asher Goodman has written soccer articles for the Denver Post, The Athletic, American Soccer Analysis, Around MLS, and Burgundy Wave.

    ​Archived articles from BW and AMLS are posted here, along with new content from 2019.


    Rabbi's current writing can be found over at holdingthehighline.substack.com.
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    This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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