Rabbi Mark Asher Goodman
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Uncertainty swirls around Altitude's future

9/3/2019

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Picture
Screencap via Altitudesports.com
On Saturday, Altitude TV, the cable station that carries Colorado Rapids matches, notified customers on Comcast, Dish Network and DirecTV that recent ongoing negotiations with the three companies had faltered and that, barring a last-minute deal, Nuggets, Avalanche, and Rapids matches would no longer be available on their cable and satellite plans. On Saturday night, Comcast carried the match, while Dish and DirecTV did not.

At issue is the amount which the three companies pay to Altitude.

The way the market is structured is like this: s
ubscribers pay their cable company their monthly bill. The cable company, in turn, takes that payment and splits it amongst the 200 or so channels based on popularity and demand. Some channels, like ESPN, command big fees - ESPN gets $7.21 each month per subscriber. Less popular channels, like the Tennis Channel, go for only $0.15. 

According to Altitude, Comcast and the other companies recently requested "a substantial and economically unviable reduction in fees." Altitude also answered questions today from subscribers about the potential viability of a streaming-only service for fans of the Nuggets, Avs, and Rapids. In short: that's a no go. Altitude's president, Matt Hutchings has told viewers that there's no way to make a niche product like that profitable - it would cost so much that subscribers would almost certainly not pay for it. 

Setting the issues of the money aside, what it all amounts to is that Colorado Rapids fans living in Colorado have no idea whether they will be able to watch the final six games of the season, or how they will watch the 2020 season at all.

Normally I would shrug and assume all of this was a form of one billionaire corporation engaging in an act of brinksmanship in order to squeeze a few more pennies from another billionaire corporation, except that Rapids play-by-play man Richard Fleming issued this tweet earlier today:

Amid much uncertainty, I’ll say this to @ColoradoRapids fans ... if these next 6 games turn out to be my last, A) it’s been tremendous fun B) it’s been my honor to be welcomed into your homes the past 7 seasons, and C) let’s go out with W-W-W-W-W-W. #dontblockmyrapids

— Richard Fleming (@FlemingSport) September 3, 2019
Fleming is't one for drama and hyperbole. If he's expressing real doubts about his future as a broadcaster with Altitude, it should be taken seriously.

I'm not a media conglomeration expert or a mole inside a major financial services company specializing in hedging mergers and acquisitions. I'm just a guy that watches soccer and studies Talmud. But from what I see, Altitude and the Rapids have roughly four options to pursue in order to move forward and be on television this year and next.

Option 1: Play the hand they've been dealt

While attempting to get the best terms possible, Altitude might have to acknowledge reality: many cable subscribers are not watching Nuggets, Avs, or Rapids games. And thus, it isn't worth it to pay through the nose for Altitude. Either Altitude would need to get put into a special, higher tier package that fewer subscribers would elect to pay for, or it would stay in the basic package but at a reduced rate. 

The impact of that on the KSE would be significant. With less revenue coming in, all three teams might need to consider cutting costs. Which is a depressing concept when you consider that the Rapids Avs and Nuggets have always been among the more frugal teams in their respective sports. Stan Kroenke has always been a bottom line guy. He's not in it for vanity or trophies; he wants to turn a profit. It's hard to figure out what his next move would be if all of his major Denver assets were guaranteed to run into the red for the forseeable future.

Option 2: Call their bluff

There's an assumption by Comcast, Dish, and DirectTV that Altitude cannot live without them - an assumption that millennials have been challenging in droves. That assumption is that sports fans need a cable or satellite package to get by. I personally cut the cord in 2012, and I haven't looked back. I watch more sports now through ESPN+ and NBC Sports than I ever used to.

Smart TVs, tablets and laptops have made cutting the cord easier than ever. But it would be up to Altitude to take the leap into the future, and the early indications are they are reticent to do so. Altitude TV's president Matt Hutchings tweeted that a streaming service "would not have sufficient revenue". I think that's both premature and shortsighted. Nobody imagined that Netflix, a DVD-by-mail racket a decade ago, would eventual evolve into an Oscar and Emmy-winning movie studio that distributes its product exclusively via streaming today. Sure, maybe cable is considered an necessary evil for current Nuggets fans. But it ought not be so forever. LAFC games are only watchable in the LA area via YouTube Red, and they seem to do just fine. Grow a pair, guys. Take a risk.

Option 3: Sell Out

If being a small-time regional sports network that is restricted to just one market has become a financial unviable path for Altitude, then maybe it's time to stop being a small-time regional sports network, and be absorbed into the collectivized Borg of nationally conglomerated sports networks. Most local US sports teams are carried on cable by Fox Sports, NBC Sports, or AT&T Sports. Not to give you an economics lesson, but that kind of massive corporate power allows for both monopolistic weigh-throwing and economies of scale. You can get Toyota to buy a lot more ads when, instead of selling Rapids games broadcast to Aurora and Longmont, you are selling 11 MLS games in 44 major metropolitan areas. You also can employ fewer ad execs and consolidate them into fewer corporate offices.

Maybe Altitude was a good idea, and a profitable one, and it worked for a while. Maybe in the Colorado market, with the product they're selling, it just isn't a viable entity anymore. Maybe it's time for KSE to just do sports teams instead of trying to be a TV company too.

Option 4: Turn out the lights, the party's over

A sports team doesn't need its own media company to distribute its games on TV and sell ads, too. A sports team owns its own broadcast rights and can choose to sell them to the highest bidder. And maybe the best way forward is to simply shutter Altitude TV and let each of the KSE teams to work out their own broadcast deal. The Nuggets could go to Root with the Rockies; the Avs could be on the CW; the Rapids could be on Youtube Red or ESPN+ or FloSports. Fans would get to watch their teams. The teams would collect revenue directly. The market would determine the winners and losers.

Some would argue that reduced access on TV to a local team would hurt ticket sales, and that might be true. But most baseball teams have long since left being broadcast on local over-the-air stations and can only be seen on cable, and  ticket sales are still doing fine in most markets. For MLS teams like the Rapids, this probably wouldn't make that big an impact - team revenues in MLS come primarily from ticket sales, followed by merchandise, and then tv revenues; and much of that TV money comes from the league splitting the national tv contract up to all 24 teams. The local money is nice, but it isn't the largest revenue source for the Rapids.


...

Maybe you're interested in sports finance. Maybe you want the Rapids to financially succeed beyond the wildest of expectations in hopes that a profitable Rapids would see reinvestment of that profit back into the team; more ticket sales and tv revenue would beget better player transfers which would beget more ticket sales and tv revenues ad infinitum. It's a circle, Simba.

Or maybe you just want the damn Rapids to be on TV without using some janky illegal stream or buying a VPN to magically inform the ESPN+ firewall that you're actually watching the game from Duluth Minnesota and not Highlands Ranch, CO. I get it. We all want the team to figure this out.

Let's hope they do it, and soon. There's only four days left till the next time the Rapids are on Altitude again.
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The Robin Fraser Era is Here

8/26/2019

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Picture
Robin Fraser, remembering the last time he was a Denver resident. Credit: John Babiak, @photogjohnb
One hundred and sixteen days after the the dismissal of Anthony Hudson, the Colorado Rapids have finally announced Robin Fraser as their new head coach. 

It was not a huge surprise. I had heard rumblings that it would be Fraser almost two months ago.
Interim Coach Conor Casey's run with the Rapids concludes with a record of  7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. It may have been odd to see  Conor Casey shunted aside after a relatively successful caretaker-manager stint, but ultimately, the timing does make sense. Colorado are 13 points below the playoff redline with only seven games left to do, making them effectively eliminated from the post-season. Saturday's loss to Real Salt Lake was as good a time as any to end Casey's tenure and let Fraser come on board to get a feel for the new Rapids.


Casey coached 18 games for #Rapids96, and departs with a 7-7-4 record.
...
- Hudson had 9 games this year and an 0-7-2 record.
- Fraser will get 7 games to close out the 2019 season. https://t.co/UkjuLK0X3X

— Mark Asher Goodman (@soccer_rabbi) August 26, 2019
Fraser can use this final seven games to experiment, tactically; to feel out his players and get a sense of if or how he might want to use them next year; and to start coordinating with General Manager Pádraig Smith on what players might best suit the plans that Fraser is laying out for the 2020 season.

Some fans will be disappointed that Pádraig Smith ultimately chose not to retain Casey as head coach. And I think that's a legitimate gripe.

Casey showed in his 3 months on the job that he could make good use of a solid-but-unspectacular lineup. He also changed the formation and tactical plan of the Rapids from a pass-oriented 4-4-2 diamond to a 4-5-1 that put an emphasis on 
defending deep, striking on the counter, and putting out a fast pair of wing attackers to get forward and help Kei Kamara score goals. It worked better than what Hudson was rolling out every week. 

But the plan was always to hire a coach with MLS experience to build a club for 2020 and beyond, not give another inexperienced former Rapids player a shot at the big time. Casey might turn out to be great, but honestly, after pressing Pablo Mastroeni into emergency duty to coach from 2015 to 2017, Colorado did not need to give another former legend his first try at managing. They needed a guy who had built up a resume watching other MLS coaches, thinking about the game, and studying the ways of managers.

He was an assistant to Jason Kreis at Real Salt Lake. He was an assistant to Hans Backe at New York Red Bulls. He was an assistant to Greg Vanney at Toronto FC. And he got a shot to be head coach with Chivas USA, even though their management team didn't support him in the slightest. He's already got the experience that Conor Casey would hope to build in order to be properly prepared to manage in MLS.

When it comes to how he'll line up and how he'll play, we aren't quite sure, but at his introductory press conference today, he gave us a little teaser.

Fraser: When asked about coaches I. MLS he wants to emulate, he highlighted Arena, Berhalter, and Vanney.

Likes the way the latter two have disorganized the opponent, especially Berhalter. #Rapids96

— Rapids Plague Matt Pollard (@LWOSMattPollard) August 27, 2019
Berhalter's system is an interesting one to consider. Gregg Berhalter, before his departure to the US Men's Team, played a high-pressure 4-2-3-1 that used a lot of diagonal passing from the midfield. Vanney, on the other hand, has played a more possession-based offense, and also used both 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-1-1 formations. The only thing we can determine from Fraser's opener is that he isn't a defensively-minded counter-attack coach.

For the final 7 games of the year, we get to see tinkering and testing. Keep an eye on how Fraser plans to use some of the new guys like Jonathan Lewis and Andre Shinyashiki. It's also interesting to see if Fraser gives Axel Sjöberg and Dillon Serna another chance to play and maybe prove their value going forward. And lastly, pay attention, but not too much attention, to whether the Rapids win a few games down the stretch. It ultimately doesn't matter that much, but it would be a positive sign for the Rapids to demonstrate to their coach that they understand and will respond to his ideas and his encouragement.

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    Mark Asher Goodman has written soccer articles for the Denver Post, The Athletic, American Soccer Analysis, Around MLS, and Burgundy Wave.

    ​Archived articles from BW and AMLS are posted here, along with new content from 2019.


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